With over 27 million cases and 465,000 deaths, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented public health challenges for healthcare providers and policymakers. For one, hospitals and other care facilities in the United States have struggled at various points to keep up with the increase in COVID-19 patients needing critical care. With rapid increases in case counts nationally, there is a need for leading indicator signals that can guide decision makers in proactively allocating health system resources and assisting policy makers in balancing public health safety with economic concerns.
The COVIDcast project is unique in that it includes a combination of multiple signals including public health surveys, mobility, doctors visits, hospitalizations, etc. Based on this available combination, we characterized whether Facebook community signals and doctors visits signals, publicly available through the COVIDcast data project, can be used as leading indicators for case counts at the county level.
source("LeadingIndicatorToolsVS.R")
library(covidcast)
## We encourage COVIDcast API users to register on our mailing list:
## https://lists.andrew.cmu.edu/mailman/listinfo/delphi-covidcast-api
## We'll send announcements about new data sources, package updates,
## server maintenance, and new features.
library(magrittr)
library(tidyverse)
## ── Attaching packages ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse 1.3.0 ──
## ✓ ggplot2 3.3.2 ✓ purrr 0.3.4
## ✓ tibble 3.0.3 ✓ dplyr 1.0.2
## ✓ tidyr 1.1.1 ✓ stringr 1.4.0
## ✓ readr 1.3.1 ✓ forcats 0.5.0
## ── Conflicts ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse_conflicts() ──
## x tidyr::extract() masks magrittr::extract()
## x dplyr::filter() masks stats::filter()
## x dplyr::lag() masks stats::lag()
## x purrr::set_names() masks magrittr::set_names()
library(assertthat)
##
## Attaching package: 'assertthat'
## The following object is masked from 'package:tibble':
##
## has_name
library(lubridate)
##
## Attaching package: 'lubridate'
## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
##
## date, intersect, setdiff, union
# fb_survey2 = get_and_prepare_signals(cases_deaths="case",
# start_day="2020-05-01",
# end_day="2021-01-31",
# indicator_source="fb-survey",
# indicator_signal="smoothed_hh_cmnty_cli",
# case_death_threshold = 2000,
# indicator_threshold=80,
# geo_type = "county")
#saveRDS(fb_survey2, file="fb_survey.RDS")
#saveRDS(hospitalizations, file="hospitalizations_deaths.RDS")
fb_survey2=readRDS(file="fb_survey.RDS")
hospitalizations=readRDS(file="hospitalizations_deaths.RDS")
#fb_survey=list("cases" = case_list[large_geos], "indicator" = indicator_list[large_geos])
#hospitalizations=get_and_prepare_signals(cases_deaths="death",
# start_day="2020-05-01",
# end_day="2021-01-31",
# indicator_source = "hospital-admissions",
# indicator_signal="smoothed_adj_covid19_from_claims",
# case_death_threshold = 0,
# indicator_threshold = 0,
# geo_type = "county")
#names(hospitalizations)<-c("deaths","indicator")
fb_survey_cases_indicator_list = get_increase_points(case_list = fb_survey2$cases,
indicator_list = fb_survey2$indicator,
local_bandwidth = 12,
local_quantile_threshold = 0.75,
local_threshold=0.2,
local_period=0)
fb_survey_success_examples = get_success_examples(case_indicator_list = fb_survey_cases_indicator_list, success_window=14,
min_success_window=3)
plot_list=vector("list", 5)
for(i in 1:length(plot_list))
{
county_name = fb_survey_success_examples[[i]]
plot_list[[i]]<-plot_signals(case_indicator_list = fb_survey_cases_indicator_list, county_fips = fb_survey_success_examples[[i]],
ylab1 = "New COVID-19 Cases",
ylab2="FB Survey", smooth_and_show_increase_point = TRUE)
print(plot_list[[i]])
}
leadingness_dist=get_leading_indicator_day_distribution(success_examples = fb_survey_success_examples,final_cases_indicator_list = fb_survey_cases_indicator_list)
barplot(table(unlist(leadingness_dist)), xlab = "Leadingness (Day)", ylab = "Count", col = 'green', main = "How leading is the indicator?")
| Bandwidth_For_Smoothing | First_Derivative_Quantile_Threshold | Min_Percent_Increase | Period_Increase | Success_Window | Min_Success_Window | Number_Success_Examples | Most_Frequent_Leadingness | Recall | Precision | F1_score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 45 | 2 | 0.0466667 | 0.0484765 | 0.0475543 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 54 | 2 | 0.0466667 | 0.0484765 | 0.0475543 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 35 | 4 | 0.0466667 | 0.0484765 | 0.0475543 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 43 | 4 | 0.0466667 | 0.0484765 | 0.0475543 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 0.0439414 | 0.0455172 | 0.0447154 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 54 | 2 | 0.0439414 | 0.0455172 | 0.0447154 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 33 | 4 | 0.0439414 | 0.0455172 | 0.0447154 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 43 | 4 | 0.0439414 | 0.0455172 | 0.0447154 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 0.0426099 | 0.0441379 | 0.0433604 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 51 | 2 | 0.0426099 | 0.0441379 | 0.0433604 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 32 | 4 | 0.0426099 | 0.0441379 | 0.0433604 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 41 | 4 | 0.0426099 | 0.0441379 | 0.0433604 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 0.0426667 | 0.0433018 | 0.0429819 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 54 | 2 | 0.0426667 | 0.0433018 | 0.0429819 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 32 | 10 | 0.0426667 | 0.0433018 | 0.0429819 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 42 | 4 | 0.0426667 | 0.0433018 | 0.0429819 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 0.0386152 | 0.0391363 | 0.0388740 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 52 | 2 | 0.0386152 | 0.0391363 | 0.0388740 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 0.0386152 | 0.0391363 | 0.0388740 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 40 | 4 | 0.0386152 | 0.0391363 | 0.0388740 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 0.0360000 | 0.0361930 | 0.0360963 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 54 | 4 | 0.0360000 | 0.0361930 | 0.0360963 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 0.0360000 | 0.0361930 | 0.0360963 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 39 | 4 | 0.0360000 | 0.0361930 | 0.0360963 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 35 | 2 | 0.0346205 | 0.0350877 | 0.0348525 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 47 | 2 | 0.0346205 | 0.0350877 | 0.0348525 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 0.0346205 | 0.0350877 | 0.0348525 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 36 | 4 | 0.0346205 | 0.0350877 | 0.0348525 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 32 | 6 | 0.0334225 | 0.0346741 | 0.0340368 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 42 | 6 | 0.0334225 | 0.0346741 | 0.0340368 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 25 | 6 | 0.0334225 | 0.0346741 | 0.0340368 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 33 | 6 | 0.0334225 | 0.0346741 | 0.0340368 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 29 | 4 | 0.0319574 | 0.0331950 | 0.0325644 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 39 | 3 | 0.0319574 | 0.0331950 | 0.0325644 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 0.0319574 | 0.0331950 | 0.0325644 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 32 | 4 | 0.0319574 | 0.0331950 | 0.0325644 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 0.0306258 | 0.0318119 | 0.0312076 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 39 | 6 | 0.0306258 | 0.0318119 | 0.0312076 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 0.0306258 | 0.0318119 | 0.0312076 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 32 | 6 | 0.0306258 | 0.0318119 | 0.0312076 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 35 | 3 | 0.0307487 | 0.0311653 | 0.0309556 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 45 | 3 | 0.0307487 | 0.0311653 | 0.0309556 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 23 | 6 | 0.0307487 | 0.0311653 | 0.0309556 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 30 | 6 | 0.0307487 | 0.0311653 | 0.0309556 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 31 | 2 | 0.0300958 | 0.0316092 | 0.0308339 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 37 | 2 | 0.0300958 | 0.0316092 | 0.0308339 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 22 | 5 | 0.0300958 | 0.0316092 | 0.0308339 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 27 | 5 | 0.0300958 | 0.0316092 | 0.0308339 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 32 | 2 | 0.0306258 | 0.0307076 | 0.0306667 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 47 | 4 | 0.0306258 | 0.0307076 | 0.0306667 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 0.0306258 | 0.0307076 | 0.0306667 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 34 | 4 | 0.0306258 | 0.0307076 | 0.0306667 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 30 | 2 | 0.0287278 | 0.0297872 | 0.0292479 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 34 | 2 | 0.0287278 | 0.0297872 | 0.0292479 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 6 | 0.0287278 | 0.0297872 | 0.0292479 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 24 | 6 | 0.0287278 | 0.0297872 | 0.0292479 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 35 | 3 | 0.0280749 | 0.0282258 | 0.0281501 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 45 | 3 | 0.0280749 | 0.0282258 | 0.0281501 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 6 | 0.0280749 | 0.0282258 | 0.0281501 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 27 | 5 | 0.0280749 | 0.0282258 | 0.0281501 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 29 | 4 | 0.0279627 | 0.0280000 | 0.0279813 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 43 | 4 | 0.0279627 | 0.0280000 | 0.0279813 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 0.0279627 | 0.0280000 | 0.0279813 |
| 14 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 31 | 4 | 0.0279627 | 0.0280000 | 0.0279813 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 30 | 2 | 0.0273598 | 0.0284091 | 0.0278746 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 35 | 2 | 0.0273598 | 0.0284091 | 0.0278746 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 0.0273598 | 0.0284091 | 0.0278746 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 24 | 5 | 0.0273598 | 0.0284091 | 0.0278746 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 28 | 2 | 0.0268097 | 0.0276625 | 0.0272294 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 0.0268097 | 0.0276625 | 0.0272294 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 0.0268097 | 0.0276625 | 0.0272294 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 33 | 6 | 0.0268097 | 0.0276625 | 0.0272294 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 0.0268097 | 0.0271739 | 0.0269906 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 48 | 2 | 0.0268097 | 0.0271739 | 0.0269906 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 0.0268097 | 0.0271739 | 0.0269906 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 33 | 6 | 0.0268097 | 0.0271739 | 0.0269906 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 31 | 2 | 0.0254692 | 0.0257453 | 0.0256065 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 0.0254692 | 0.0257453 | 0.0256065 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 0.0254692 | 0.0257453 | 0.0256065 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 29 | 6 | 0.0254692 | 0.0257453 | 0.0256065 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 0.0239680 | 0.0242588 | 0.0241125 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 0.0239680 | 0.0242588 | 0.0241125 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 37 | 3 | 0.0239680 | 0.0242588 | 0.0241125 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 35 | 3 | 0.0239680 | 0.0242588 | 0.0241125 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 18 | 6 | 0.0239680 | 0.0242588 | 0.0241125 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 0.0239680 | 0.0242588 | 0.0241125 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 26 | 19 | 0.0239680 | 0.0242588 | 0.0241125 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 25 | 5 | 0.0239680 | 0.0242588 | 0.0241125 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 24 | 4 | 0.0213049 | 0.0216216 | 0.0214621 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 34 | 4 | 0.0213049 | 0.0216216 | 0.0214621 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 0.0213049 | 0.0216216 | 0.0214621 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 0.0213049 | 0.0216216 | 0.0214621 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 19 | 12 | 0.0199734 | 0.0205198 | 0.0202429 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 32 | 6 | 0.0199734 | 0.0205198 | 0.0202429 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 0.0199734 | 0.0205198 | 0.0202429 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 26 | 6 | 0.0199734 | 0.0205198 | 0.0202429 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 23 | 4 | 0.0199734 | 0.0202703 | 0.0201207 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 23 | 4 | 0.0199734 | 0.0202703 | 0.0201207 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 32 | 4 | 0.0199734 | 0.0202703 | 0.0201207 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 32 | 4 | 0.0199734 | 0.0202703 | 0.0201207 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 0.0199734 | 0.0202703 | 0.0201207 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 0.0199734 | 0.0202703 | 0.0201207 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 0.0199734 | 0.0202703 | 0.0201207 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 0.0199734 | 0.0202703 | 0.0201207 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186916 | 0.0186667 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 31 | 3 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186916 | 0.0186667 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186916 | 0.0186667 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 21 | 6 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186916 | 0.0186667 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 24 | 4 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 33 | 3 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 24 | 2 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 19 | 4 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 | 0.0186418 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 0.0173103 | 0.0173103 | 0.0173103 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 0.0173103 | 0.0173103 | 0.0173103 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 0.0173103 | 0.0173103 | 0.0173103 |
| 12 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 0.0173103 | 0.0173103 | 0.0173103 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 0.0159787 | 0.0161943 | 0.0160858 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 0.0159787 | 0.0161943 | 0.0160858 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 0.0159787 | 0.0161943 | 0.0160858 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 0.0159787 | 0.0161943 | 0.0160858 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 0.0159787 | 0.0160214 | 0.0160000 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 0.0159787 | 0.0160214 | 0.0160000 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 28 | 2 | 0.0159787 | 0.0160214 | 0.0160000 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 27 | 3 | 0.0159787 | 0.0160214 | 0.0160000 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 0.0159787 | 0.0160214 | 0.0160000 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 0.0159787 | 0.0160214 | 0.0160000 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 0.0159787 | 0.0160214 | 0.0160000 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 0.0159787 | 0.0160214 | 0.0160000 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 0.0146471 | 0.0150479 | 0.0148448 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 0.0146471 | 0.0150479 | 0.0148448 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 0.0146471 | 0.0150479 | 0.0148448 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 0.0146471 | 0.0150479 | 0.0148448 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 0.0146471 | 0.0148048 | 0.0147256 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 20 | 3 | 0.0146471 | 0.0148048 | 0.0147256 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 0.0146471 | 0.0148048 | 0.0147256 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 0.0146471 | 0.0148048 | 0.0147256 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 0.0133156 | 0.0134590 | 0.0133869 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 0.0133156 | 0.0134590 | 0.0133869 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 0.0133156 | 0.0134590 | 0.0133869 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 0.0133156 | 0.0134590 | 0.0133869 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133511 | 0.0133333 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 17 | 2 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133511 | 0.0133333 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133511 | 0.0133333 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133511 | 0.0133333 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133511 | 0.0133333 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133511 | 0.0133333 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133511 | 0.0133333 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133511 | 0.0133333 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133156 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133156 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133156 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133156 | 0.0133156 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 0.0119840 | 0.0120160 | 0.0120000 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 5 | 0.0119840 | 0.0120160 | 0.0120000 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 0.0119840 | 0.0120160 | 0.0120000 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 0.0119840 | 0.0120160 | 0.0120000 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 |
| 14 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 | 0.0119840 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106809 | 0.0106667 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 23 | 3 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106809 | 0.0106667 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106809 | 0.0106667 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106809 | 0.0106667 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106667 | 0.0106596 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106667 | 0.0106596 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106667 | 0.0106596 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106667 | 0.0106596 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106525 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106525 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106525 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106525 | 0.0106525 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 0.0093209 | 0.0094213 | 0.0093708 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 0.0093209 | 0.0094213 | 0.0093708 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 0.0093209 | 0.0094213 | 0.0093708 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 0.0093209 | 0.0094213 | 0.0093708 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0.0093209 | 0.0094213 | 0.0093708 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0.0093209 | 0.0094213 | 0.0093708 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0.0093209 | 0.0094213 | 0.0093708 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 0.0093209 | 0.0094213 | 0.0093708 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 0.0093209 | 0.0093708 | 0.0093458 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 0.0093209 | 0.0093708 | 0.0093458 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0.0093209 | 0.0093708 | 0.0093458 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 0.0093209 | 0.0093708 | 0.0093458 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 0.0079893 | 0.0080537 | 0.0080214 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 0.0079893 | 0.0080537 | 0.0080214 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 0.0079893 | 0.0080537 | 0.0080214 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 0.0079893 | 0.0080537 | 0.0080214 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0.0079893 | 0.0080321 | 0.0080107 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 0.0079893 | 0.0080321 | 0.0080107 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 0.0079893 | 0.0080321 | 0.0080107 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 0.0079893 | 0.0080321 | 0.0080107 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 0.0079893 | 0.0080000 | 0.0079947 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 0.0079893 | 0.0080000 | 0.0079947 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0.0079893 | 0.0080000 | 0.0079947 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0.0079893 | 0.0080000 | 0.0079947 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 | 0.0079893 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066667 | 0.0066622 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066667 | 0.0066622 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066667 | 0.0066622 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066667 | 0.0066622 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066667 | 0.0066622 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066667 | 0.0066622 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066667 | 0.0066622 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066667 | 0.0066622 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066667 | 0.0066622 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066667 | 0.0066622 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066667 | 0.0066622 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066667 | 0.0066622 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 |
| 12 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 | 0.0066578 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053981 | 0.0053619 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053981 | 0.0053619 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053981 | 0.0053619 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053981 | 0.0053619 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053333 | 0.0053298 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053333 | 0.0053298 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053333 | 0.0053298 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053333 | 0.0053298 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053262 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053262 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053262 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053262 | 0.0053262 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.0039947 | 0.0040377 | 0.0040161 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.0039947 | 0.0040377 | 0.0040161 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 0.0039947 | 0.0040377 | 0.0040161 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 0.0039947 | 0.0040377 | 0.0040161 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.0039947 | 0.0040377 | 0.0040161 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.0039947 | 0.0040377 | 0.0040161 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 0.0039947 | 0.0040377 | 0.0040161 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 0.0039947 | 0.0040377 | 0.0040161 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 10 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 | 0.0039947 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 4 | -19 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 7 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 14 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 | 0.0026631 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 | 0.0013316 |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 1 | -20 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 2 | -76 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 3 | -44 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 3 | -44 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 2 | -76 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 2 | -76 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 1 | -13 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 2 | -7 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 2 | -7 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 2 | -7 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 1 | -7 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 10 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 12 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 1 | -7 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.75 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
| 7 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 1 | -7 | 0.0000000 | 0.0000000 | NA |
plot_list=vector("list", performance_df$Number_Success_Examples[1])
fb_survey_cases_indicator_list = get_increase_points(case_list = fb_survey2$cases,
indicator_list = fb_survey2$indicator,
local_bandwidth = 14,
local_quantile_threshold = 0.85,
local_threshold=0.2,
local_period=7)
fb_survey_success_examples = get_success_examples(case_indicator_list = fb_survey_cases_indicator_list, success_window=14,min_success_window=1)
leadingness_dist=get_leading_indicator_day_distribution(success_examples = fb_survey_success_examples,final_cases_indicator_list = fb_survey_cases_indicator_list)
# pdf("success_examples_best_parameters_2_09_21.pdf")
# for(i in 1:length(plot_list))
# {
# county_name = fb_survey_success_examples[[i]]
# plot_list[[i]]<-plot_signals(case_indicator_list = fb_survey_cases_indicator_list, county_fips = fb_survey_success_examples[[i]],
# ylab1 = "New COVID-19 Cases",
# ylab2="FB Survey", smooth_and_show_increase_point = TRUE)
# }
# library(gridExtra)
# ggsave(
# filename = "success_examples_best_parameters_2_09_21.pdf",
# plot = marrangeGrob(plot_list, nrow=2, ncol=2),
# )
#
# dev.off()
for(i in 1:length(plot_list))
{
county_name = fb_survey_success_examples[[i]]
plot_list[[i]]<-plot_signals(case_indicator_list = fb_survey_cases_indicator_list, county_fips = fb_survey_success_examples[[i]],
ylab1 = "New COVID-19 Cases",
ylab2="FB Survey", smooth_and_show_increase_point = TRUE)
print(plot_list[[i]])
}
## Warning in grep_lookup(key = name, keys = df$NAME, values = df$ABBR, ignore.case
## = ignore.case, : Some inputs were not uniquely matched; returning only the first
## match in each case.
## Warning in grep_lookup(key = name, keys = df$NAME, values = df$ABBR, ignore.case
## = ignore.case, : Some inputs were not uniquely matched; returning only the first
## match in each case.
## Warning in grep_lookup(key = name, keys = df$NAME, values = df$ABBR, ignore.case
## = ignore.case, : Some inputs were not uniquely matched; returning only the first
## match in each case.
fb_survey_cases_indicator_list = get_increase_points(case_list = fb_survey2$cases,
indicator_list = fb_survey2$indicator,
local_bandwidth = 12,
local_quantile_threshold = 0.75,
local_threshold=0.2,
local_period=0)
all_guessers=generate_competitors_get_scores(final_cases_indicator_list=fb_survey_cases_indicator_list)
first_elem=all_guessers[[1]]
par(mfrow=c(3,2))
plot(first_elem$time_value, first_elem$case_value, col=ifelse(first_elem$case_rise_point==1, 'red','black'), pch=20, xlab = "Case", ylab = "Date",
main = "Case Rise Point")
plot(first_elem$time_value, first_elem$case_value, col=ifelse(first_elem$indicator_rise_point==1, 'red','black'), pch=20,xlab = "Case", ylab = "Date",
main = "Indicator Rise Point")
plot(first_elem$time_value, first_elem$case_value, col=ifelse(first_elem$random_guesser==1, 'red','black'), pch=20, xlab = "Case", ylab = "Date",
main = "Random Guesser")
plot(first_elem$time_value, first_elem$case_value, col=ifelse(first_elem$case_first_deriv_guesser==1, 'red','black'), pch=20, xlab = "Case", ylab = "Date",
main = "Case First Derivative > 0")
plot(first_elem$time_value, first_elem$case_value, col=ifelse(first_elem$indicator_first_deriv==1, 'red','black'),pch=20, xlab = "Case", ylab = "Date",
main = "Indicator First Derivative > 0")